Thematic challenge workshop outcomes

Data-driven trajectory prediction

Accurate and reliable trajectory prediction (TP) is a fundamental requirement to support trajectory-based operations. Lack of advance information and the mismatch between planned and flown trajectories caused by operational uncertainties from airports, ATC interventions, and ‘hidden’ flight plan data (e.g., cost indexes, take-off weights) are important shortcomings of the present state of the art. New TP approaches, merging and analysing different sources of flight-relevant information, are expected to increase TP robustness and support a seamless transition between tools supporting ATFCM across the planning phases. The exploitation of historical data by means of machine learning, statistical signal processing and causal models could boost TP performance and enhance the TBO paradigm. Specific research domains include machine-learning techniques, the aggregation of probabilistic predictions, and the development of tools for the identification of flow-management ‘hotspots’. These could be integrated into network and trajectory planning tools, leading to enhanced TP.

Efficient provision and use of meteorological information in ATM

The main objective of this challenge is to improve overall ATM system performance by providing better user-support tools based on improved meteorological (‘met’) products. The focus is on the synergy of several methods and techniques in order to better meet the needs of operational users and to support aviation safety (e.g., through creating early warning systems) and regulation-makers (e.g., moving from text-based to graphical information provision). All stakeholders may benefit from this synergy: ANSPs (e.g., sector reconfiguration and separation provision), airlines (e.g., storm avoidance), airport operators (e.g., airport management under disruptive events), and the Network Manager (e.g., demand-capacity balancing). The challenge is, therefore, to bring the following perspectives closer: (a) for meteorological/atmospheric science, the development of products tailored to ATM stakeholders’ needs, which are unambiguous and easy to interpret; (b) for stakeholders, the identification of the most suitable information available and its integration into planning and decision-making processes.

Novel and more effective allocation markets in ATM

This research explores the design of new allocation markets in ATM, taking into account real stakeholder behaviours. It focuses on designs such as auctions and ‘smart’ contracts for slot and trajectory allocations. It seeks to better predict the actual behaviour of stakeholders, compared with behaviours predicted by normative models, taking into account that decisions are often made in the context of uncertainty. Which mechanisms are more robust against behavioural biases and likely to reach stable and efficient solutions, equitably building on existing SESAR practices? The research will address better modelling and measurement of these effects in ATM, taking account of ‘irrational’ agents such as airline ‘cultures’. A key objective is to contribute to the development of improved tools to better manage the allocation of resources such as slots and trajectories, and incentivising behaviour that benefits the network – for example by investigating the potential of centralised markets and ‘smart’ contract enablers.