7. Modelling the Economics of Delivery UAS in airspace Surrounding Airports (‘MEDUSA’)

The MEDUSA (Modelling the Economics of Delivery UAS in airspace Surrounding Airports) project, supported by the SESAR 3 Joint Undertaking, aimed to predict drone delivery hotspots across Europe by assessing economic viability and market potential. The core methodology involved developing the MEDUSA Simulator (WP1) to quantify operational costs and profitability for a spoke-hub distribution model, focusing on detailed unit economics such as ground crew logistics. This was integrated with a Market Potential Model (WP2) that used a custom population clustering approach, excluding highly dense urban cores, to identify viable market reach. Key theoretical predictions (WP3) demonstrated that optimal hub locations frequently overlap with existing regulated airspaces. Profitability is highly sensitive to external USSP fees and requires a break-even market reach of a minimum of 50,000 people. Expected peak drone traffic in top airspaces could reach 400 to 500 movements per hour, underscoring the urgent need for scalable U-space solutions and sustainable cost-sharing models.