Probabilistic Analysis of Airspace Capacity in Adverse Weather Scenarios

Accurate prediction of the Air Traffic Control (ATC) sector capacity is a cornerstone in solving the demand/capacity imbalance problem in aviation. In this paper, we develop a methodology, based on the continuous maxflow/mincut theory, to estimate the reduction of the ATC sector capacity due to predicted convective weather activity. The meteorological forecast uncertainty is quantified using Ensemble Weather Forecasting. We demonstrate how to determine congestion in ATC sectors, using an example of a realistic sector, also a whole sector configuration, and propose a way to present the probabilistic overload and congestion status to support the decision-making process at the Flow Management Position.