Modeling Impacts of Aviation Mitigations & ATC Delay on Passenger COVID-19 Infection Risk

The aviation system has been hugely impacted by COVID-19 but will be a critical enabler of economic recovery. There is an urgent need for models to help understand the potential infection risks posed by air travel, as well as the impact of different mitigations available to aviation stakeholders. This paper presents a modeling system to address these needs. Elements of the model are described and it is then exercised to explore the relative effectiveness of airport and aircraft cabin passenger density restrictions, air turnover rate and passenger mask utilization. The model is then extended to explore the impacts on infection risk of different ATC delay scenarios. The model can be built upon in the future to not only help in the recovery from COVID, but also to develop system robustness strategies to better prepare for future challenges.