Evaluation of Aircraft Speed and Wind Modeling Accuracy in Automation for Trajectory Based Operations

Trajectory Based Operations (TBO) is a new approach to manage air traffic being implemented in many part of the world, including US and Europe. A study which evaluates aircraft descent speed modeling and the impact of wind data into TBO systems is presented in this paper. Differences between the descent speed models used by TBO systems and descent speed derived by aircraft interrogations through Mode S Enhanced Surveillance (EHS) vary depending on aircraft types between 1.4% and 7.7%. Modest improvements in the performance of the Time-Based Flow Management (TBFM) system were observed by using wind data derived by a more accurate forecast than currently used. For the best performing flights in the sample analyzed, the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of the Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) error improved by almost 7%. Larger improvements for the best performing flights seem to be achievable during days impacted by high winds with a reduction of the ETA RMSE error of 24%. Future work will explore how larger benefits to TBO performance will be enabled through other enhancements, such as to trajectory prediction algorithms.