Data-Driven Analysis Method for Calculated Time Over in Air Traffic Flow Management

Due to limited airspace and airport capacity, excessive traffic demand overwhelms air traffic control and causes traffic delays. Air traffic flow management (ATFM) is widely used to prevent excessive traffic demand. ATFM regulates air traffic using traffic management initiatives (TMIs), such as ground delay, miles-in-trail, and speed adjustment. In Japan, the Calculated Fix Departure Time (CFDT), also known as the Calculated Time Over, is being developed as an additional TMI, and trials on CFDT operation have been conducted. The CFDT can be performed if pilots accept the CFDT assigned by the ATFM system. Therefore, a CFDT procedure with a high acceptance rate by pilots is necessary to establish effective CFDT operation. To estimate the acceptance rate, this study develops an analysis method for CFDT operation using data collected in trial operations. With the estimated acceptance rate, the potential performance of the CFDT operation can be quantitatively discussed. The proposed analysis method can contribute to the design of an efficient procedure for CFDT operation by providing the estimated acceptance rate.