Arrival Time Management in real weather conditions

Dynamic in-flight trajectory optimization provides airports, air traffic control, and airlines with significant operational flexibility. This concept offers various optimization opportunities to meet the sustainability requirements of air transport, enhancing economic and ecological efficiency, and ensuring safety. One promising approach involves regulating aircraft arrival rates to balance the demand-capacity in the airport’s approach sector. When extending this approach, particularly for long-haul flights, arrival times are controlled hours before landing. However, the effectiveness of these control measures and their impact on arrival times depend heavily on flight performance and the unpredictable influence of weather conditions. In our study, we analyzed more than 5,000 realistic and physically possible arrival times of 23 long-haul flights destined for Singapore Changi Airport extracted during a peak hour. Each flight is manipulated in speed, route, and starting time of manipulation and is modeled in different weather scenarios. Therewith, we extracted an optimal time frame for a significant speed adjustment and acceptable weather-induced uncertainty. As weather-induced uncertainty in arrival times grows over time, we recommend implementing speed or route control measures approximately four hours in advance. For control periods exceeding five hours, the uncertainty stemming from poorly predictable weather often outweighs the impact of speed adjustments on arrival times. Consequently, control measures over such extended durations are advisable only when assuming homogeneous weather conditions.