AI-Driven Air Traffic Flow Management for Weather and Capacity-Constrained Operations – An Integrative Approach for Next-Generation ATFCM tools

Due to an increase in convective weather events, the EUROCONTROL Network Manager (NM) introduced the Cross- Border Weather Procedure (CBWP) to facilitate coordination with Air Navigation Service Providers (ANSPs). The goal of the CBWP is to mitigate the impact of severe weather by addressing capacity constraints in the European airspace network. ISOBAR serves as a support tool to optimise NM processes, facilitating decision-making and communication between NM Flow positions and ANSPs. This is achieved by integrating bleeding-edge Integrated Network Manager (iNM) operational tools like iFlow (the future Flow function front-end), and with the official weather forecast source from the European Meteoro- logical Network (EMN). ISOBAR is an open-loop Machine Learning (ML) tool designed for convective weather management, with two main purposes. First, it predicts the probability of a weather-induced regulation materialising at the Traffic Volume (TFV) level. Second, it predicts the associated regulation rate, also known as capacity reduction. This provides operators with early insights into po- tential problem areas, improving coordination with ANSPs. By providing predictions at both tactical (TACT) and pre-tactical (pre-TACT) phases of flight planning, ISOBAR helps operators to spot differences between capacity reduction and planned demand, and serves as a valuable input for simulations and implementations of possible scenarios.